Mauritanie et Pakistan : Parallélisme des formes
Dans le champ des sciences politiques africaines, peu de théâtres d’opérations offrent autant de leçons et d’intrigues que celui de la Mauritanie durant ces dix dernières années. Dans un des multiples forums locaux, un internaute a peint la situation en Mauritanie en ces termes : « Ould part, Ould vient, tandis que Ould affute ses armes et attend… » A y regarder de près, au-delà des eternels coups réussis ou manqués en Mauritanie, le paysage politico-militaire de la Mauritanie nous rappelle étrangement celui du Pakistan.
Le scenario écrit le 06 Aout 2008 avec l’usurpation du pouvoir par le General Abdel Aziz continue de se dérouler avec précision et détermination. Comme il fallait s’y attendre, Aziz n’a pas l’intention de devenir un clone de Ould Vall qui, après avoir destitué Taya, a remis le pouvoir au peuple Mauritanien en la personne du Président Sidi. Quelques soient les reproches qu’on pourrait faire a ce dernier, il n’empêche qu’il est dépositaire de la légitimité constitutionnelle a l’issue d’ élections souveraines qui ont par ailleurs été marquées par la percée de Ibrahima Moctar Sarr qui a recueilli 8% des suffrages exprimés au premier tour.
En effet, le coup d’état du 06 Aout traduit moins un souci de sortir la Mauritanie du deadlock dans lequel l’administration de Sidi avait plonge les institutions, qu’un désir de la classe militaire de retourner aux affaires. Nous pensons, qu’il existe en Mauritanie, tout comme au Pakistan une véritable classe militaire composée d’officiers supérieurs, qui, pour avoir incarné le pouvoir et jouit des privilèges y attenant, est arrivée a s’autoproclamer comme gardienne et dépositaire de la légitimité populaire.
Tant que le colonel Taya jouait le jeu de l’armée mauritanienne, celle-ci lui a servi de soupape de sécurité et a protégé son pouvoir. Ould Vall a certes remis le pouvoir à qui de droit, c’est-a-dire le peuple mauritanien, mais c’était sans compter avec le désir des officiers supérieurs de l’armée de rester dans les arcanes du pouvoir. Au Pakistan aussi, il arrive que le pouvoir retourne aux civils, comme c’est le cas actuellement, mais la pérennité dudit pouvoir est conditionnée à sa soumission à la volonté de l’armée.
Dans l’un comme dans l’autre cas, l’instabilité institutionnelle conduit inexorablement à des soubresauts et des éruptions cycliques de violence. Toutefois, le Pakistan est une puissance nucléaire et l’armée s’est constituée garante de l’arsenal. C’est pourquoi, il est de l’intérêt de la communauté internationale que les officiers militaires restent puissants dans l’architecture institutionnelle. On ne peut pas dire qu’il en soit de même pour la Mauritanie.
Un autre avantage comparatif dont dispose le Pakistan est la présence d’un ennemi juré, qui se trouve être un voisin immédiat. Nous savons depuis Thucydide et son récit « The Peloponnesian War » que les Etats existent et se maintiennent par la désignation d’un ennemi. Le Pakistan a bien appris cette leçon et d’autres encore de Hans Morgenthau à Kenneth Waltz. C’est dire que si l’Inde n’existait pas, il aurait fallu que le Pakistan la créât. La rivalité entre les deux pays est la condition sine qua none de la cohésion nationale du Pakistan. Et l’émergence d’un ennemi de type nouveau à l’intérieur des frontières du Pakistan, à savoir les Taliban, est un phénomène auquel le régime d’Islamabad ne s’est point préparé et ne dispose point de moyens d’y faire face.
La Mauritanie ne s’est pas fait un ennemi juré. Selon les contingences sociopolitiques, elle s’est frottée au Maroc, puis au Sénégal, avant de s’embarrasser sur le choix à adopter entre s’allier avec le monde arabo-islamique ou s’intégrer à l’Afrique sub-saharienne.
Le fait que Ba Mbare ait accédé au pouvoir en Mauritanie, aussi symbolique que cela puisse être, nous semble relever tout simplement d’une stratégie qui vise à maintenir une classe militaire au pouvoir, en attendant qu’un autre « Ould » décide d’ouvrir une autre page dans l’histoire politique de la Mauritanie.
Ba
Blog: nomadfulani.blogspot.com
Showing posts with label World Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Politics. Show all posts
Monday, April 27, 2009
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Captain, the Pirates, and the Collapsed State
Captain Richard Philips has been rescued by the U.S. Navy seals after being held hostage for five days by a handful of Somali pirates. Beyond the cheers and tears of joy for the safe return of Capt Philips and his crewmates, there is an overlaying drama unfolding before our eyes for a number of years while the international community failed to act in this very strategic region for the global trade and international peace.
This daring rescue by the U.S navy puts an end to several days of high stakes confrontation between the most efficient weaponry in the history of humankind and a few Somali fishermen carrying what has become the weapon of choice in the Global South armed conflicts: RPGs and AK 47. However, it seems to me that it will lead to an escalation of the piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden in a climate of heated up hostilities between the Americans and the Somalis. The plan of a U.S congressman came under fire in Mogadishu a few hours after Captain Philips’ ordeal and the Somalis pirates attacked another American ship the following day.
One could discuss about the consequences of the insecurity in the Gulf of Aden and what it entails in regards to the global trade. We could also argue about the fate of the pirate captured by the U.S. navy and study the legal technicalities of bringing him to justice, and under whose law and jurisdiction. But that is not the point of my argument. I want to rather think of the issue from the Somali perspective and what this crisis means to the African nations.
It needn’t be repeated that the lawless Golf of Aden is just a collateral damage of the crumbled nation of Somalia that ceased to exist for almost two decades. However, Somali misfortune started long before the civil war erupted in 1991.
In “Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States: Causes and Consequences” (1993), Robert I. Rotberg argues that currently failed states are Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, the Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Sudan, and that Somalia is in fact a “collapsed state”. On this list, all but one country are located in Africa. Although Burundi, Liberia and Sierra Leone have since been on the path of nation-building, Somalia has just kept its disintegration.
“How could Somalia, a nation-state of about 9 million people with a strongly cohesive cultural tradition, a common language, a common religion, and a shared history of nationalism, fail and then, collapse?” wonders Rotberg. Well, the fact of the matter is that General Siad Barre usurped the power in 1969 and suspended the constitution and banned political parties in order to fight corruption. Twenty years of misadventures later, with the support of the Soviet Union first, then backed the U.S, he ruined any chance of keeping Somalia as one piece of land with a single nationality. By the onset of the civil war in 1991, the Somali state has long since failed. The civil war destroyed what was left, and Somalia collapsed onto itself…
In the absence of multiple ethnic groups, the line of fracture of the Somali society became the clans and sub-clans. The second decade of the Somali civil war saw the entry in force of the Islamist war factions that occupied Mogadishu at some point, before being overthrown by the Ethiopian army.
It didn’t take long for the Somali fishermen to find out that millions of dollars could be made off the waters of the Indian Ocean if they were willing to “get rich or die trying”. According to some reports, they currently control about 30 ships and up to 300 hostages. The issue now is: where do we go from here?
My opinion is that only a well planned peacekeeping and nation-building program can help Somalia move forward and bring peace and the rule of law to the region. Then the question becomes: who is willing to take that initiative?
The U.S government has a traumatized past in the streets of Mogadishu. Ever since the Black Hawk went down in 1993, it is unrealistic to expect any western government to send troops in Somalia. The African Union is the entity that must step up in these circumstances. Liberia and Sierra Leone emerged from decades of civil war. So, why can’t Somalia?
I think putting an African peacekeeping force on the ground is feasible and carries less animosity form the Somalis as compared to a hypothetic western force. With a U.N mandate and financial support from the international community, a transitional government can be implemented and national infrastructures can be built. Because the security in the territorial waters of Somalia is crucial to the western countries economy, they certainly will be eager to participate in the nation-building efforts in Somalia. If after free and fair elections, the Somalis choose to be governed by an Islamist government, so be it.
Another issue related to the need to act quickly is the fear of the spreading of the piracy in other African coastal regions. That is why now is the time for the international community to help Somalia emerge from this nightmare. Otherwise, the cost will be much higher for us all.
This daring rescue by the U.S navy puts an end to several days of high stakes confrontation between the most efficient weaponry in the history of humankind and a few Somali fishermen carrying what has become the weapon of choice in the Global South armed conflicts: RPGs and AK 47. However, it seems to me that it will lead to an escalation of the piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden in a climate of heated up hostilities between the Americans and the Somalis. The plan of a U.S congressman came under fire in Mogadishu a few hours after Captain Philips’ ordeal and the Somalis pirates attacked another American ship the following day.
One could discuss about the consequences of the insecurity in the Gulf of Aden and what it entails in regards to the global trade. We could also argue about the fate of the pirate captured by the U.S. navy and study the legal technicalities of bringing him to justice, and under whose law and jurisdiction. But that is not the point of my argument. I want to rather think of the issue from the Somali perspective and what this crisis means to the African nations.
It needn’t be repeated that the lawless Golf of Aden is just a collateral damage of the crumbled nation of Somalia that ceased to exist for almost two decades. However, Somali misfortune started long before the civil war erupted in 1991.
In “Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States: Causes and Consequences” (1993), Robert I. Rotberg argues that currently failed states are Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, the Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Sudan, and that Somalia is in fact a “collapsed state”. On this list, all but one country are located in Africa. Although Burundi, Liberia and Sierra Leone have since been on the path of nation-building, Somalia has just kept its disintegration.
“How could Somalia, a nation-state of about 9 million people with a strongly cohesive cultural tradition, a common language, a common religion, and a shared history of nationalism, fail and then, collapse?” wonders Rotberg. Well, the fact of the matter is that General Siad Barre usurped the power in 1969 and suspended the constitution and banned political parties in order to fight corruption. Twenty years of misadventures later, with the support of the Soviet Union first, then backed the U.S, he ruined any chance of keeping Somalia as one piece of land with a single nationality. By the onset of the civil war in 1991, the Somali state has long since failed. The civil war destroyed what was left, and Somalia collapsed onto itself…
In the absence of multiple ethnic groups, the line of fracture of the Somali society became the clans and sub-clans. The second decade of the Somali civil war saw the entry in force of the Islamist war factions that occupied Mogadishu at some point, before being overthrown by the Ethiopian army.
It didn’t take long for the Somali fishermen to find out that millions of dollars could be made off the waters of the Indian Ocean if they were willing to “get rich or die trying”. According to some reports, they currently control about 30 ships and up to 300 hostages. The issue now is: where do we go from here?
My opinion is that only a well planned peacekeeping and nation-building program can help Somalia move forward and bring peace and the rule of law to the region. Then the question becomes: who is willing to take that initiative?
The U.S government has a traumatized past in the streets of Mogadishu. Ever since the Black Hawk went down in 1993, it is unrealistic to expect any western government to send troops in Somalia. The African Union is the entity that must step up in these circumstances. Liberia and Sierra Leone emerged from decades of civil war. So, why can’t Somalia?
I think putting an African peacekeeping force on the ground is feasible and carries less animosity form the Somalis as compared to a hypothetic western force. With a U.N mandate and financial support from the international community, a transitional government can be implemented and national infrastructures can be built. Because the security in the territorial waters of Somalia is crucial to the western countries economy, they certainly will be eager to participate in the nation-building efforts in Somalia. If after free and fair elections, the Somalis choose to be governed by an Islamist government, so be it.
Another issue related to the need to act quickly is the fear of the spreading of the piracy in other African coastal regions. That is why now is the time for the international community to help Somalia emerge from this nightmare. Otherwise, the cost will be much higher for us all.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Somalian 21st century pirates
A few group of Somalians armed with AK 47 and RPG are negociating with a US war ship for the release of the ship captain that they took hostage. You see the irony in this event? Some kids from a collapsed state have thye upper hand in this confrontation with the most powerful military force in human history.
The Golf of Aden has become the new pot d'or for the Somalis as hundreds of millions dollars have been made there in the last few years. In this era of unmanned drones dropping targeted missiles, all the new pirates need is a small speed boat, a RPG, and unflinching readiness to "be rich or die trying".
For the last 2 decades, the world has watched this only African country where everybody speeks the same language, worship the same God, and listen to the same music, fall apart.
Now that the Multinational Corporations are paying a hefty price, there is no doubt that they will pressure the states to act. But the question is: What can the international community do?
Military operations in the Indian Ocean will fail to make the area any safer for commercial navigation. The only way to fix the problem is to fix Somalia. But then, we may ask, whose task is it to fix Somalia?
Well, I think that it is up to whoever benefits from a safe and law-abiding Somalian state to help rebuild the country.
The Golf of Aden has become the new pot d'or for the Somalis as hundreds of millions dollars have been made there in the last few years. In this era of unmanned drones dropping targeted missiles, all the new pirates need is a small speed boat, a RPG, and unflinching readiness to "be rich or die trying".
For the last 2 decades, the world has watched this only African country where everybody speeks the same language, worship the same God, and listen to the same music, fall apart.
Now that the Multinational Corporations are paying a hefty price, there is no doubt that they will pressure the states to act. But the question is: What can the international community do?
Military operations in the Indian Ocean will fail to make the area any safer for commercial navigation. The only way to fix the problem is to fix Somalia. But then, we may ask, whose task is it to fix Somalia?
Well, I think that it is up to whoever benefits from a safe and law-abiding Somalian state to help rebuild the country.
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